The objectives of the producer countries :
Russia wants to quickly return to normal production and Saudi Arabia wants to benefit from the high prices for longer. Despite the common policy put in place in response to the fall in prices last year, tensions between the two countries could therefore be rekindled.
At the last summit in January 2021, the allies agreed to gradually open the floodgates until March in order to keep prices rising by limiting supply. By then, 7,125 million fewer barrels per day were being produced in February and this figure had risen to 70.5 million barrels in March. Russia and Kazakhstan alone were then responsible for the gradual resumption of the group's production, while Saudi Arabia surprised the market by reducing its own production by a million additional barrels.
In view of these discrepancies, one wonders what decisions will be taken in the near future. The current rise in the price of black gold could indeed lead to a more rapid relaxation of quotas, particularly in view of the current rise in demand in China and the rest of the world, which could increase with the vaccination campaigns.
Other topics of contention expected at this meeting :
In addition to the opposition between Russia and Saudi Arabia, other areas of contention are expected this week, including the issue of compliance with the quotas set by each of the members as a token of security.in addition to the opposition between Russia and Saudi Arabia, other subjects of contention are expected this week, including the respect of quotas set by each member as a guarantee of security and credibility of the past agreement which has already shaken previous meetings and which will no doubt be discussed again this week.
It should be remembered that the cuts that have been made have had a significant negative impact on the finances of certain countries, apart from Iran, Venezuela and Libya, which are exempt from the cuts.some countries such as Iraq and Nigeria easily give in to cheating despite Saudi Arabia's admonitions and promises of compensation that are often delayed.
In the case of an easing of US sanctions, which seems likely with the arrival of Democratic President Joe Biden at the helm of the United States, it is likely that the US government will be able to take the necessary steps to ensure that the sanctions are relaxed. the White House could lead to a return to production in Iran and threaten the current balance between supply and demand that is being closely monitored by OPEC and its allies. An exchange by videoconference between the main producers is also expected on Wednesday during the monthly monitoring committee of the current agreement to reduce the group's production.