A mixed decision that calls for caution:

This increase falls short of analysts' expectations of a stronger recovery. Indeed, the volumes withdrawn from the market by OPEC+ were 7.2 million barrels per day less in January and will rise to 7.125 million barrels less in February and then to 7.05 million barrels less in March. It is indeed these figures which were announced yesterday by the cartel following the first peak of this new year 2021. This result calls for caution in the face of the health crisis.

In this regard, Energy Minister Abdelaziz ben Salmana said at a press conference that Riyadh decided to start its own quota over the period up to one million barrels per day in order not to lead to too much supply in a context of fragile recovery of demand.

A compromise was therefore finally reached by the members of the organisation at the end of a two-day cycle of meetings.

 

Brent and WTI barrel prices skyrocketed after this announcement:

During yesterday's session we saw a rise in crude oil prices following this OPEC decision. In fact, WTI's barrel of Brent crude oil rose above $50 a barrel for the first time in 10 months in response to OPEC's decision to increase its price very slightly. As for the barrel of North Sea Brent for delivery in March, it took 4.91% of its value, or $2.51, compared to its closing on Monday, at $53.60 and shortly after reaching $53.76, a level it had not reached since last March 3.

It must be said that the markets had anticipated a more significant increase in these production quotas and the movements observed are therefore bullish corrections of the positions taken during the previous days.

The cartel called for caution and stated its objective of adjusting oil supply month by month in order to support crude oil prices in the face of a health and economic context that is still very uncertain, particularly because of the third round of containment in some European countries. The Group's approach is intended to be more conservative in this very particular context. The markets have thus reacted in the hoped-for direction with good support for black gold prices, which no doubt satisfies the OPEC+ members who were expecting such a reaction.